More Plant Shutdowns

[mbulriss]

> This thread will end up proving why politics are a banned topic on
> most forums like this.

Steve, thanks for reminding everyone about the front page rules. This
thread started as a report on the general state of the RV industry.
That was OK since it was about how that affects all of our resale
values.

The thread has now gotten into world politics, job losses, currency
valuations, and other off-topic items. I don't see anything about
India, China, et. al. buying our Birds.

So please let's get back to getting Scott's Bird restarted.

Scott, I vote for the ground straps by the way since you have checked
and verified neutral and the A/T switch (which has bitten me more
than once).

Thanks everyone for dropping world politics,

Mike Bulriss
1991 WB40 "Texas Minivan"
San Antonio, TX


>--- In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, Steve Pfiffner
wrote:
>
>
> ,___
> This thread will end up proving why politics are a banned topic on
most forums like this. I am amazed that after 30 years of exporting
our production capacity and our jobs
> that so many people still buy into the pablum that destroying
american jobs is somehow "economic efficency" when it is simply
greater profits for the corporate elite. The Europeans choose to
protect industries and jobs and it has served them well as noted
> by the current exchange rates.
>
> Steve
> Wannabee
>
>
> Steve
>

[Mike Hohnstein]

Good instructive post.

MH

----- Original Message -----

From: "aeonix1@mac.com"

To: "WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com"

Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 4:29 PM

Subject: Re: [WanderlodgeForum] More Plant Shutdowns

Ron,

I have the same year coach as you ... and believe me, a "top off" of over $1000 is not something I really anticipated when I got my coach. And, I'm well aware of the fuel use, especially if you get a little too enthusiastic about covering ground in states with high speed limits and little traffic.

While your concern about the competition of China and India for oil certainly suggest that higher oil prices can be expected are true -- (that probably accounts for a good portion of the _other_ half of the price increase over the past year) a strengthening dollar, should it eventually arrive, will give the economy room to adjust to the higher prices -- as it has in the prior "oil shocks."

The gloom and doom news from the media over our economic situation often ignores a few realities. For example, the 2007 GDP for China is only about 1/4 this size of the US economy. (India's GDP is about 1/2 the size of China's economy.) 07 wasn't a great growth year for the US (about 2.2%) and China reported a 10+% increase. However, when converted to actual dollars, the US growth was about $305 billion while China's GDP grew about $350 billion. When you compare percents (2.2 vs 10+) it looks bad for the US ... but when you look at the actual dollars it represents, the massive size of the US economy is still quite large in comparison. Indeed, in a good year when the US growth rate gets to 3.5% or so, our _growth_ alone is equal to 1/2 the total GDP of China.

Yes, China (and India) are gaining on us. Yes, we have many challenges ahead. Yes, there are severaldisturbingtrends in our economy and demographics that suggest that some serious challenges will occur in the next few years. But there is considerable strength in our economy and there are also many factors that suggest that we'll do better than many doomsayers claim.

No ... we won't be selling hamburgers to the world. It's actually better for our economy (and the world's economy) that production move to places where it can be most efficiently produced. (It leaves our economy to produce the goods and _services_ that we're most efficient at doing.) That the US loses "high paying" manufacturing jobs is sometimes painfully obvious -- but manufacturing is less than 20% of our GDP (2006 figures latest available to me). When manufacturing moves overseas, it generally increases other jobs in the U.S. -- this, of course, is dispersed, so the obvious (newsworthy) loss of jobs is publicized but the not-so-obvious increase in other jobs, spread throughout the country and in a variety of sectors (transportation, wholesale trade, retail trade, finance, etc.) is neither obvious nor reported.

Indeed, this map gives a little perspective as it relates the GDP of each US _state_ to countries throughout the world.

<http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/06/10/131-us-states-renamed-for-countries-with-similar-gdps/> (you may need to reassemble this to load in your browser) or try

<http://tiny.cc/vXWbp>

The US generates about 30.5% of the world GDP, China contributes about 5.8% of world GDP.

<http://www.swivel.com/data_sets/show/1004018>

So, short term, I'm quite concerned about the US economy. I'm painfully aware of the recent, significant run-up in fuel cost. But longer-term, I'm quite confident that we'll recover economically. So don't get sucked in by the reportage from the media over our economic "problems" (and realize that in a presidential election year there are many who benefit from "bad news" about the economy).

Pete Masterson

'95 Blue Bird Wanderlodge WBDA 42

El Sobrante CA

"aeonix1@mac.com"

On Apr 19, 2008, at 1:02 PM, Ron Thompson wrote:

Pete,

I agree with you that our economy will weather this storm, however, we are in a completely different situation this time. China, India, and Asia were not the power houses they are becoming and we had not given away so much of our manufacturing base. Those overseas companies are not going to give up what they now have at all. Their competetion at the Oil Companies market place is going to ensure that we are going to have high prices from now on.

With our manufacturing base gone, what will we have left to sell, hamburgers?

I know that diesel prices are certainly going to curb my travel. I have a 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins diesel and it cost me over a hundred dollars just to fill its tank. At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42 footer. And at 6 miles to the gallon if I baby it along I can get down the road about 1800 miles. However, if I am in mountains or just hills that mileage goes down quickly to about 4 miles to the gallon.

Heartbreaking....

Ron Thompson

<snip>

[Ryan Wright]

> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> dollar toys such as yachts?

Folks selling million dollar toys will still be able to sell them.
Certainly, if you can buy a multi-million dollar yacht, the price of
oil isn't going to be a factor. For those of us with middle class
incomes, however, it certainly is, and the businesses catering to us
are going to hurt the most - especially frivolous, expensive items
that are usually financed, like RVs.

> At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42
footer.

Diesel is $3.40 a gallon down the street from me in southeastern
Washington State. I topped off my tank a couple of weeks ago when it
was $3.09.

-Ryan

[Ron Thompson]

You really know how to make a guy feel bad. $3.40/gal....Hrrrrrumph.

Ryan Wright wrote:

> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> dollar toys such as yachts?

Folks selling million dollar toys will still be able to sell them.
Certainly, if you can buy a multi-million dollar yacht, the price of
oil isn't going to be a
factor. For those of us with middle class
incomes, however, it certainly is, and the businesses catering to us
are going to hurt the most - especially frivolous, expensive items
that are usually financed, like RVs.

> At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995 WLWB 42 footer.

Diesel is $3.40 a gallon down the street from me in southeastern
Washington State. I topped off my tank a couple of weeks ago when it
was $3.09.

-Ryan

Ron Thompson -Waller, Tx.
1995 WLWB 42'Blue Bird
(cockyfox@...)

[mbulriss]

> Diesel is $3.40 a gallon down the street from me in southeastern
> Washington State. I topped off my tank a couple of weeks ago when it
> was $3.09.


Ryan,

Can we safely assume that this post was not lost for a few weeks on
the internet, but rather that you meant to type $4.40 and 4.09 a
gallon? ;^)

I think we can all agree that the price of fuel is fairly immaterial
to people that can afford million dollar coaches. According to the
newest Marathon coach owners magazine, they are still selling well.
The substantial listing of new and repeat owners included names like
Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. Fuel is the least of their issues,
when they have "RVs" just to serve as weekend housing after flying in
on private jets to their weekend job-site! LOL

Last I heard, we have about 20 Birds coming to this weekend's Lone
Star Birds Rally, so we are all learning to adapt to the new
realities, and still enjoy the things we love.

Mike Bulriss
1991 WB40 "Texas Minivan" - diesel at $3.99 at the nearby HEB grocery
San Antonio, TX


--- In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "Ryan Wright"
wrote:
>
> > should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> > mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> > of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> > dollar toys such as yachts?
>
> Folks selling million dollar toys will still be able to sell them.
> Certainly, if you can buy a multi-million dollar yacht, the price of
> oil isn't going to be a factor. For those of us with middle class
> incomes, however, it certainly is, and the businesses catering to us
> are going to hurt the most - especially frivolous, expensive items
> that are usually financed, like RVs.
>
> > At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this
1995 WLWB 42 footer.
>
> Diesel is $3.40 a gallon down the street from me in southeastern
> Washington State. I topped off my tank a couple of weeks ago when it
> was $3.09.
>
> -Ryan
>

[Gary Smith]

That price sounds like it is off-road use fuel, not on-the-road. Currently
diesel at the FJ stations in WA are more than a $1 a gallon above these
numbers.
Gary
SOB
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ron Thompson"
To:
Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2008 3:35 PM
Subject: Re: [WanderlodgeForum] More Plant Shutdowns


> You really know how to make a guy feel bad. $3.40/gal....Hrrrrrumph.
>
> Ryan Wright wrote: >
> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> > mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> > of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> > dollar toys such as yachts?
>
> Folks selling million dollar toys will still be able to sell them.
> Certainly, if you can buy a multi-million dollar yacht, the price of
> oil isn't going to be a factor. For those of us with middle class
> incomes, however, it certainly is, and the businesses catering to us
> are going to hurt the most - especially frivolous, expensive items
> that are usually financed, like RVs.
>
> > At $4.14 per gallon of diesel, it costs me $1242.00 to fill this 1995
> > WLWB 42 footer.
>
> Diesel is $3.40 a gallon down the street from me in southeastern
> Washington State. I topped off my tank a couple of weeks ago when it
> was $3.09.
>
> -Ryan
>
>
>
>
>
> Ron Thompson -Waller, Tx.
> 1995 WLWB 42'Blue Bird
> (cockyfox@...)
> ----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been processed by Firetrust Benign.
>
>
>
> E-mail message checked by Spyware Doctor (5.5.0.178)
> Database version: 5.09660
> http://www.pctools.com/spyware-doctor/
>

[Bill Garamella]

Just came across this article with a positive spin on the subject .. an RV plant
opening!

RV maker closes but Canadian competitor plans move to Yakima
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

YAKIMA, Wash. -- Two days after the indefinite shutdown of Western Recreational
Vehicles Inc. in Union Gap, a Canadian RV outfit is set to move to the Yakima
area.

Adventurer Manufacturing LP of Abbotsford, British Columbia, announced plans on
Thursday to open a manufacturing plant area in mid-August. Marketing and sales
manager Jim Giesbrecht says the company will start with about 30 workers but
could
boost employment to 100.

Giesbrecht says one attraction for the 39-year-old company is the experienced
labor
force in the RV industry in Yakima.

The announcement comes two days after the indefinite shutdown of Western RV.
Most of
that company's 220 workers have been laid off.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420...ma_rv.html

Bill
1983 FC 35


--- In WanderlodgeForum@yahoogroups.com, "birdshill123"
wrote:
>
> It seems like RV plants are either closing or severely cutting back
> production. The scary part is how fast this is happening. Country
> Coach has laid off a few hundred workers. Alfa is in a state of limbo
> and if the posts on the Alfa forum are any indication they will be
> out of business very quickly.( maybe SEE YA was aan appropriate name)
> The really bad news is as follows:
>
>
>
> DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc.
> said it will shut down most of its production lines for a week
> beginning Monday, the result of a continued slowdown in sales.
>
> Low consumer confidence in the economy and interest rates are the two
> primary factors that affect business, company spokeswoman Sheila
> Davis said Friday.
>
> Although The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates in
> recent months, the reduction has not largely reached consumers yet,
> Davis said.
>
> The curtailment of production at the company's factories in Forest
> City, Charles City and Hampton will affect a majority of the ompany's
> 3,000 workers.
>
>
> A production line in Charles City will stay on the job during the
> week and office workers will remain.
>
> "We take a look at our schedules based on the level we're seeing in
> the retail market and the wholesale market to our dealers," Davis
> said. "We evaluate that on a daily basis and want to make sure we
> keep our inventories in line."
>
> The company typically only shuts down production for a week around
> Christmas and a week in late July.
>
> In March, Winnebago reported that second-quarter profits fell nearly
> 67 percent as consumer confidence helped drag down sales of
> recreational vehicles.
>
> Net income fell to $2.5 million, or 9 cents a share, for the three
> months ended March 1, down from $7.5 million, or 24 cents a share a
> year ago. Sales fell 17.5 percent to $164.2 million from $199 million
> for the same period a year ago.
>
> On Friday shares were trading 2.2 percent higher, or 35 cents, at
> $15.79. Shares have traded in the past 52 weeks between $14.96 and
> $34.44.
>
> The Forest City-based company said in March it had cut employment by
> 9 percent, or about 300 people during the quarter to bring production
> in line with slowing sales.
>
> President Bob Olson told industry analysts that sales were down
> across the industry in the double digits for each month since the
> beginning of the year.
>
> He told analysts that the usual spring uptick in sales likely will be
> muted because of concerns over the economy. Olson said he hoped to
> see a turnaround by November.
>
> END OF ARTICLE
>
> Some of the other mfrs. that closed were smaller mfrs. with shakey
> management. Winnie is probably an exception. An experienced and
> usually well run company. If they cannot sell units who can?? I saw
> that Harley has laid off some staff and their sales are down. We
> should not take all of this lightly. I wonder how the high end RV
> mfrs. are doing: Foretravel, Newell and of course the most important
> of all BB???? I also wonder what is happening with other million
> dollar toys such as yachts?
>
> Bruce
> 1988 FC35
>

[David Campbell]

Just visited the Newell plant in Miami, OK. a couple weeks ago. They produce 42 coaches a year max. The new ones are all sold, but the backlog is down to 8 months from 16. They deal with at least 22 NASCAR drivers which no doubt is a great help for sales and accounts for some used coaches withvery interesting colors.

David Campbell

00 Itasca Horizon

Looking at LXi's, Prevosts, and Newells

Salt Springs, Fla. - Eagle River, Wis.

---

Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. [url=http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51733/*http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR...o8Wcj9tAcJ ] Try it now.[/url]

[Ryan Wright]

Yeah, I blew it. I did mean $4.40 a gallon. I was trying to explain
that prices are much higher here, and that even $4 a gallon fuel
sounds good right now.

And, prices have gone up again in the last few days, we're now closer to $4.50.

-Ryan

On Sun, Apr 20, 2008 at 1:24 PM, Gary Smith wrote:
>
> That price sounds like it is off-road use fuel, not on-the-road. Currently
> diesel at the FJ stations in WA are more than a $1 a gallon above these
> numbers.

[Dorn Hetzel]

The local Love's truck stop here in Hogansville was $4.149 yesterday "cash" price.

The odd thing with loves is the diesel pumps on the "car" side give the "cash" price when I use my credit card, but the pumps on the "truck" side differentiate.


So I fill up on the "car" side. Only annoying thing is only $75 per card swipe...

Dorn Hetzel
77FC35
Hogansville, GA

On Mon, Apr 21, 2008 at 7:29 PM, Ryan Wright <"ryanpwright@gmail.com"> wrote:

Yeah, I blew it. I did mean $4.40 a gallon. I was trying to explain

that prices are much higher here, and that even $4 a gallon fuel

sounds good right now.



And, prices have gone up again in the last few days, we're now closer to $4.50.



-Ryan



On Sun, Apr 20, 2008 at 1:24 PM, Gary Smith <"gl_smith%40ix.netcom.com"> wrote:

>

> That price sounds like it is off-road use fuel, not on-the-road. Currently

> diesel at the FJ stations in WA are more than a $1 a gallon above these

> numbers.